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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 7

Jacksonville Jaguars 31 – Denver Broncos 17

What Actually Happened

(13:38) 39-C.Little 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.34 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 7, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.38 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP