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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 67

Jacksonville Jaguars 34 – Denver Broncos 20

What Actually Happened

(9:43) 9-L.Cooke punts 55 yards to DEN 12, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 19-M.Mims to DEN 19 for 7 yards (95-B.Green; 56-Y.Abdullah).

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.79 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 67, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 25, worth -1.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model