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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 41

Denver Broncos 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 34

What Actually Happened

(8:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left intended for 13-P.Bryant INTERCEPTED by 22-J.Jones at JAX 30. 22-J.Jones to JAX 30 for no gain (13-P.Bryant).

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.32 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 41, worth -1.64 EP
KICK +0.07 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model