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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 54

Jacksonville Jaguars 34 – Denver Broncos 20

What Actually Happened

(4:21) 9-L.Cooke punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.07 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 54, worth -2.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 16, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model