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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 11 at the 45

Denver Broncos 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 34

What Actually Happened

(2:18) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep left to 14-C.Sutton [91-A.Armstead]. ** Injury Update: JAX-30-M.Brown has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +2.60 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 45, worth -1.69 EP
KICK -0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model