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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 38

Jacksonville Jaguars 34 – Denver Broncos 20

What Actually Happened

(1:44) 9-L.Cooke punts 36 yards to DEN 2, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-26-An.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +1.31 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 38, worth -1.57 EP
KICK +0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 47, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.20 EP