Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 59

Tennessee Titans 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(13:19) 3-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to KC 13, Center-46-M.Cox. 81-N.Remigio MUFFS catch, recovered by KC-38-K.Knowles at KC 6. 38-K.Knowles to KC 6 for no gain (54-D.Mausi). PENALTY on KC-34-M.Edwards, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 3 yards, enforced at KC 6.

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.85 EP
70% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 59, worth -2.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model