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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
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Tennessee Titans

HC Brian Callahan
Sunday 2025-12-21 · 13:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.5 O/U 37.5

Win Probability

KC
65.7%
TEN
34.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TEN offense: -0.148 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • TEN defense: +0.145 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • KC offense: +0.057 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • QB edge to KC: Cam Ward (TEN) -0.207 vs Gardner Minshew (KC) -0.098 EPA/dropback (KC starting Gardner Minshew in place of Patrick Mahomes)
  • KC defense: -0.066 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

KC 25
–
TEN 18
Projected margin: KC by 7 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

KC

Derrick Nnadi DT Out Illness
Jawaan Taylor T Out Elbow
Jaylon Moore T Out Knee
Trent McDuffie CB Out Knee
Nazeeh Johnson CB Out Shoulder
Leo Chenal LB Out Shoulder
Tyquan Thornton WR Out Concussion
Rashee Rice WR Out Concussion
Jake Briningstool TE Out Hamstring

TEN

Ali Gaye LB Out Knee
Bryce Oliver WR Out Knee
Cedric Gray LB Out Concussion
Oluwafemi Oladejo LB Out Fibula
Kevin Zeitler G Questionable Groin
Arden Key LB Questionable Illness
Van Jefferson WR Questionable Back
Jalyn Armour-Davis CB Questionable Achilles
Gunnar Helm TE Questionable Toe

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 9
–
TEN 26

Prediction missed by 24 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 13:09 SAF TEN (13:09) 29-K.Hunt up the middle tackled in End Zone for -2 yards, SAFETY (98-J.Simmons). KC 0 – TEN 2
  • Q2 07:45 FG KC (7:45) 7-H.Butker 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. KC 3 – TEN 2
  • Q2 01:43 TD TEN (1:43) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short middle to 85-C.Okonkwo for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 3 – TEN 8
  • Q2 00:10 FG KC (:10) 7-H.Butker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. KC 6 – TEN 9
  • Q3 10:35 TD TEN (10:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 17-C.Dike for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 6 – TEN 15
  • Q3 03:04 FG KC (3:04) 7-H.Butker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. KC 9 – TEN 16
  • Q4 12:00 TD TEN (12:00) 2-T.Spears left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 9 – TEN 22
  • Q4 03:47 FG TEN (3:47) 6-J.Slye 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker. KC 9 – TEN 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 12 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (12:54) 14-M.Araiza punts 42 yards to TEN 32, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 1 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 45%

    (10:18) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short right to 84-G.Helm.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 7 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 26%

    (8:31) 14-M.Araiza punts 42 yards to TEN 10, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 17-C.Dike. PENALTY on TEN-54-D.Mausi, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 10.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 17 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 24%

    (2:27) 3-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to KC 6, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 81-N.Remigio.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 10 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (14:53) 14-M.Araiza punts 32 yards to TEN 39, Center-41-J.Winchester. 17-C.Dike to TEN 42 for 3 yards (21-J.Hicks).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 11 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (13:19) 3-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to KC 13, Center-46-M.Cox. 81-N.Remigio MUFFS catch, recovered by KC-38-K.Knowles at KC 6. 38-K.Knowles to KC 6 for no gain (54-D.Mausi). PENALTY on KC-34-M.Edwards, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 3 yards, enforced at KC 6.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 10 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 35%

    (11:50) 3-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to KC 5, Center-46-M.Cox. 81-N.Remigio pushed ob at KC 36 for 31 yards (3-J.Hekker).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 4 at the 36
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 66%

    (7:45) 7-H.Butker 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 4 at the 33
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 73%

    (7:47) 7-H.Butker 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 1 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 30%

    (6:29) (No Huddle) 1-C.Ward up the middle to 50 for no gain (23-D.Tranquill; 97-A.Gillotte).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%

    (3:04) 7-H.Butker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 9 at the 9 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 97%

    (3:47) 6-J.Slye 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.