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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 33

Kansas City Chiefs 6 – Tennessee Titans 16

What Actually Happened

(7:47) 7-H.Butker 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.09 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 33, worth -1.65 EP
KICK +0.48 EP
What Happened
  • 73% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 43, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP