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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 9

Tennessee Titans 23 – Kansas City Chiefs 9

What Actually Happened

(3:47) 6-J.Slye 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.02 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 9, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.07 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT -0.94 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model