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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 52

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(8:31) 14-M.Araiza punts 42 yards to TEN 10, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 17-C.Dike. PENALTY on TEN-54-D.Mausi, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 10.

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.72 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 52, worth -3.15 EP
KICK -1.97 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.24 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 15, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model