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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 10

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(12:49) 92-H.Mevis 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +2.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.08 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 10, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.35 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP