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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
@
SEA Home

Seattle Seahawks

HC Mike Macdonald
Thursday 2025-12-18 · 20:15 Lumen Field, Seattle US 🌧 Rain Spread 1.5 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

LA
49.8%
SEA
50.2%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: +0.233 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • SEA defense: -0.236 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • SEA offense: +0.055 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • Wind 17 mph
  • QB edge to SEA: Sam Darnold (SEA) +0.243 vs Matthew Stafford (LA) +0.228 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

LA 22
–
SEA 23
Projected margin: SEA by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

LA

Davante Adams WR Doubtful Knee
Braden Fiske DE Questionable Ankle

SEA

Charles Cross T Out Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 37
–
SEA 38

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 30 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:13 TD SEA (7:13) 26-Z.Charbonnet up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 0 – SEA 6
  • Q1 01:45 FG LA (1:45) 92-H.Mevis 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans. LA 3 – SEA 7
  • Q2 12:49 FG LA (12:49) 92-H.Mevis 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans. LA 6 – SEA 7
  • Q2 03:47 TD LA (3:47) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 18-T.Ferguson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 12 – SEA 7
  • Q3 13:06 TD SEA (13:06) 9-K.Walker right guard for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 13 – SEA 13
  • Q3 08:40 FG LA (8:40) 92-H.Mevis 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans. LA 16 – SEA 14
  • Q3 06:34 TD LA (6:34) 22-B.Corum left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 22 – SEA 14
  • Q4 13:36 TD LA (13:36) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 29 – SEA 14
  • Q4 08:18 TD SEA (8:18) 42-E.Evans punts 43 yards to SEA 42, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 22-R.Shaheed for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 30 – SEA 20
  • Q4 06:30 TD SEA (6:30) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 88-A.Barner for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 30 – SEA 28
  • Q5 06:36 TD LA (6:36) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 12-P.Nacua for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 36 – SEA 30
  • Q5 03:17 TD SEA (3:17) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 37 – SEA 36

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 1 at the 62
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (13:36) 23-K.Williams up the middle to LA 41 for 3 yards (0-D.Lawrence).

  • Q1 LA 4th & 1 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 52%

    (9:55) 23-K.Williams right end to SEA 39 for no gain (0-D.Lawrence; 29-J.Jobe). (Virtual Measurement).

  • Q1 LA 4th & 5 at the 30
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 75%

    (4:26) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 12-P.Nacua to SEA 24 for 6 yards (29-J.Jobe). Penalty on SEA-0-D.Lawrence, Defensive Offside, declined.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (1:45) 92-H.Mevis 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 1 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.47 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (1:05) 4-M.Dickson punts 44 yards to LA 12, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 7 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 97%

    (12:49) 92-H.Mevis 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 8 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (10:40) 4-M.Dickson punts 56 yards to LA 7, Center-41-C.Stoll. 19-X.Smith to LA 38 for 31 yards (38-B.Russell).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 8 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 88%

    (8:40) 92-H.Mevis 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 14 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 30%

    (3:39) 4-M.Dickson punts 32 yards to LA 15, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 6 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (8:18) 42-E.Evans punts 43 yards to SEA 42, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 22-R.Shaheed for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 7 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (7:09) 42-E.Evans punts 32 yards to SEA 43, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 3 at the 67 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57%

    (4:54) 42-E.Evans punts 44 yards to SEA 23, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 4 at the 71 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (3:25) 4-M.Dickson punts 51 yards to LA 20, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 8 at the 29 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 77%

    (2:11) 92-H.Mevis 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 17 at the 69 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (1:50) 4-M.Dickson punts 57 yards to LA 12, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 10 at the 51 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 21%

    (:49) 42-E.Evans punts 36 yards to SEA 15, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.