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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 62

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(13:36) 23-K.Williams up the middle to LA 41 for 3 yards (0-D.Lawrence).

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.82 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 62, worth -3.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.26 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 21, worth -1.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model