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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 8 at the 22

Los Angeles Rams 13 – Seattle Seahawks 14

What Actually Happened

(8:40) 92-H.Mevis 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.03 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 22, worth -1.13 EP
KICK +0.97 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.34 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 32, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model