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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 39

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(9:55) 23-K.Williams right end to SEA 39 for no gain (0-D.Lawrence; 29-J.Jobe). (Virtual Measurement).

The Three Options

GO +1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.22 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 39, worth -2.41 EP
KICK -0.84 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.24 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 48, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model