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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 14 at the 47

Seattle Seahawks 14 – Los Angeles Rams 23

What Actually Happened

(3:39) 4-M.Dickson punts 32 yards to LA 15, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.89 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 47, worth -2.25 EP
KICK -1.06 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT +0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 13, worth +0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model