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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 75

Los Angeles Rams 30 – Seattle Seahawks 22

What Actually Happened

(7:09) 42-E.Evans punts 32 yards to SEA 43, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.83 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.35 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 75, worth -4.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 32, worth -1.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model