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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 67

Los Angeles Rams 30 – Seattle Seahawks 30

What Actually Happened

(4:54) 42-E.Evans punts 44 yards to SEA 23, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.31 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 67, worth -3.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 25, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model