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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 17 at the 69

Seattle Seahawks 30 – Los Angeles Rams 30

What Actually Happened

(1:50) 4-M.Dickson punts 57 yards to LA 12, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +1.52 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 69, worth -2.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 27, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model