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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 56

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(1:05) 4-M.Dickson punts 44 yards to LA 12, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.58 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 56, worth -2.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 17, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.47 EP