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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 9

New York Giants 0 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(11:08) 30-B.Sauls 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +2.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.43 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 9, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP