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Minnesota Vikings

HC Kevin O'Connell
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New York Giants

HC Brian Daboll
Sunday 2025-12-21 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 💨 Windy Spread -2.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

MIN
32.0%
NYG
68.0%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIN offense: -0.133 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • NYG defense: +0.171 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • J.J. McCarthy (MIN): -0.229 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NYG offense: +0.080 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • Wind 20 mph

Predicted Final Score

MIN 19
–
NYG 23
Projected margin: NYG by 4 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

MIN

Javon Hargrave DT Out Thigh
Christian Darrisaw T Out Knee
Ty Chandler RB Out Knee
Gavin Bartholomew TE Out Back
Brian O'Neill T Questionable Heel

NYG

Rakeem Nunez-Roches DT Out Ankle
Kayvon Thibodeaux LB Out Shoulder
Evan Neal G Out Neck
Beaux Collins WR Out Concussion
Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles LB Questionable Illness
Joshua Ezeudu G Questionable Calf
Art Green CB Questionable Illness
Rico Payton CB Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 16
–
NYG 13

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:54 FG MIN (10:54) 16-W.Reichard 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. MIN 3 – NYG 0
  • Q2 11:08 FG NYG (11:08) 30-B.Sauls 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan. MIN 3 – NYG 3
  • Q2 04:53 FG MIN (4:53) 16-W.Reichard 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. MIN 6 – NYG 3
  • Q2 02:09 TD MIN (2:09) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy scrambles right end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 12 – NYG 3
  • Q2 00:25 TD NYG (:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy sacked at MIN 33 for -8 yards (0-B.Burns). FUMBLES (0-B.Burns) [0-B.Burns], RECOVERED by NYG-27-T.Nubin at MIN 27. 27-T.Nubin for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN-9-J.McCarthy was injured during the play. MIN 13 – NYG 9
  • Q4 11:10 FG NYG (11:10) 30-B.Sauls 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan. MIN 13 – NYG 13
  • Q4 04:18 FG MIN (4:18) 16-W.Reichard 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. MIN 16 – NYG 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 4 at the 25
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 83%

    (10:54) 16-W.Reichard 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 5 at the 10
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 97%

    (5:21) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart sacked at MIN 15 for -5 yards (61-J.Redmond).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 8 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%

    (11:08) 30-B.Sauls 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 1 at the 47
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 28%

    (7:28) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones up the middle to NYG 44 for 3 yards (22-A.Phillips). MIN-78-R.Kelly was injured during the play. PENALTY on NYG-22-A.Phillips, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NYG 44.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 13 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 95%

    (4:53) 16-W.Reichard 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 14 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:04) 12-J.Gillan punts 51 yards to MIN 23, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 4-M.Price to MIN 35 for 12 yards (23-A.Green).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 5 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (11:15) 12-J.Gillan punts 40 yards to MIN 23, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 4-M.Price. PENALTY on MIN-0-I.Pace, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 23.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 6 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 35%

    (5:35) 17-R.Wright punts 29 yards to NYG 15, Center-42-A.DePaola. 80-G.Olszewski pushed ob at NYG 20 for 5 yards (36-Z.Scott). PENALTY on MIN-40-S.Takitaki, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 20.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 2 at the 54
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62%

    (1:59) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass short middle to 18-D.Slayton to MIN 46 for 8 yards (51-B.Cashman).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 10 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 89%

    (11:10) 30-B.Sauls 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 3 at the 12 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 96%

    (4:18) 16-W.Reichard 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 3 at the 53 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 16%

    (2:05) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart sacked at NYG 39 for -8 yards (43-A.Van Ginkel).