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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 47

Minnesota Vikings 3 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(7:28) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones up the middle to NYG 44 for 3 yards (22-A.Phillips). MIN-78-R.Kelly was injured during the play. PENALTY on NYG-22-A.Phillips, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NYG 44.

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.77 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 47, worth -2.75 EP
KICK -1.70 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.72 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 13, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model