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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 13 at the 13

Minnesota Vikings 3 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(4:53) 16-W.Reichard 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +1.03 EP
  • 25% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.40 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 13, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 23, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model