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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 44

Minnesota Vikings 13 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(5:35) 17-R.Wright punts 29 yards to NYG 15, Center-42-A.DePaola. 80-G.Olszewski pushed ob at NYG 20 for 5 yards (36-Z.Scott). PENALTY on MIN-40-S.Takitaki, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.36 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 44, worth -2.35 EP
KICK -1.28 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP