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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 25

Minnesota Vikings 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(10:54) 16-W.Reichard 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.37 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 25, worth -1.34 EP
KICK +0.66 EP
What Happened
  • 83% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.24 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 35, worth -2.25 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP