4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 54

New York Giants 10 – Minnesota Vikings 13

What Actually Happened

(1:59) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass short middle to 18-D.Slayton to MIN 46 for 8 yards (51-B.Cashman).

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.74 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 54, worth -2.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 16, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model