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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 53

New York Giants 13 – Minnesota Vikings 16

What Actually Happened

(2:05) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart sacked at NYG 39 for -8 yards (43-A.Van Ginkel).

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.00 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 53, worth -2.12 EP
KICK -1.37 EP
  • 16% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 84% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT -0.74 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 15, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model