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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 38

Baltimore Ravens 10 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(10:43) 33-T.Loop 56 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.15 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 38, worth -1.93 EP
KICK +0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 47, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model