Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- NE offense: +0.136 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
- BAL defense: -0.131 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
- Drake Maye (NE): +0.260 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- BAL offense: +0.035 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
- NE defense: -0.088 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 16
NE
BAL
Pulled fresh for 2025 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 12:26 TD BAL (12:26) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry left tackle for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 0 – BAL 6
- Q2 11:22 TD NE (11:22) 77-B.Brown and 95-K.Tonga reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye pass short right to 85-H.Henry for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 6 – BAL 7
- Q2 05:44 FG NE (5:44) 36-A.Borregales 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer. NE 10 – BAL 7
- Q2 01:07 FG BAL (1:07) 33-T.Loop 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. NE 10 – BAL 10
- Q3 07:47 FG NE (7:47) 36-A.Borregales 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer. NE 13 – BAL 10
- Q3 04:43 TD BAL (4:43) 4-Z.Flowers right end for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 13 – BAL 16
- Q4 12:53 TD BAL (12:53) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 13 – BAL 23
- Q4 09:07 TD NE (9:07) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 18-K.Williams for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 19 – BAL 24
- Q4 02:15 TD NE (2:15) 74-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson right tackle for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 27 – BAL 24
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 NE 4th & 1 at the 17Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 94%
(8:41) 95-K.Tonga and 74-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye right guard to BAL 15 for 2 yards (0-R.Smith).
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Q2 BAL 4th & 9 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(10:32) 11-J.Stout punts 39 yards to NE 25, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-39-K.Jackson.
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Q2 NE 4th & 12 at the 27Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 86%
(5:44) 36-A.Borregales 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
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Q2 BAL 4th & 5 at the 18Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 94%
(1:07) 33-T.Loop 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
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Q3 NE 4th & 11 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(14:14) 17-B.Baringer punts 49 yards to BAL 22, Center-47-J.Ashby. 83-L.Wester to BAL 33 for 11 yards (47-J.Ashby).
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Q3 BAL 4th & 9 at the 38Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 65%
(10:43) 33-T.Loop 56 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
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Q3 NE 4th & 2 at the 22Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EPp(convert) 57% p(FG) 91%
(7:47) 36-A.Borregales 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
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Q3 NE 4th & 10 at the 56Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(2:01) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 15-M.Mapu. 15-M.Mapu sacked at NE 43 for -1 yards (81-D.Walker). FUMBLES (81-D.Walker) [81-D.Walker], touched at NE 45, recovered by NE-51-J.Gibbens at NE 44.
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Q4 BAL 4th & 9 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(5:12) 11-J.Stout punts 45 yards to NE 11, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-39-K.Jackson.
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Q4 NE 4th & 2 at the 48 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 61% p(FG) 40%
(3:02) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 8-S.Diggs pushed ob at BAL 27 for 21 yards (24-M.Starks).