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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 22

New England Patriots 10 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(7:47) 36-A.Borregales 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +2.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.57 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 22, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 32, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP