Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 56

New England Patriots 13 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(2:01) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 15-M.Mapu. 15-M.Mapu sacked at NE 43 for -1 yards (81-D.Walker). FUMBLES (81-D.Walker) [81-D.Walker], touched at NE 45, recovered by NE-51-J.Gibbens at NE 44.

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP

What Happened

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.88 EP
65% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 56, worth -3.03 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model