Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 56

Baltimore Ravens 24 – New England Patriots 21

(5:12) 11-J.Stout punts 45 yards to NE 11, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-39-K.Jackson.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.51 EP
65% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 56, worth -2.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model