Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 11 at the 57

Washington Commanders 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

(15:00) 10-T.Way punts 47 yards to PHI 10, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.00 EP
70% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 57, worth -2.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model