Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- WAS defense: +0.221 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
- PHI offense: +0.041 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
- PHI defense: -0.162 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
- WAS offense: -0.056 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 16
PHI
WAS
Pulled fresh for 2025 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 11:42 FG WAS (11:42) 16-J.Moody 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. PHI 0 – WAS 3
- Q1 02:40 TD PHI (2:40) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 6-D.Smith for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 6 – WAS 3
- Q2 03:57 TD WAS (3:57) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 7 – WAS 9
- Q3 03:33 TD PHI (3:33) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 13 – WAS 10
- Q4 11:41 TD PHI (11:41) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley left tackle for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 20 – WAS 10
- Q4 04:33 TD PHI (4:33) 79-M.Pryor reported in as eligible. 37-T.Bigsby left tackle for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 27 – WAS 10
- Q4 01:13 TD WAS (1:13) 36-C.Rodriguez left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 29 – WAS 16
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 WAS 4th & 2 at the 2Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.46 EPp(convert) 51% p(FG) 99%
(11:42) 16-J.Moody 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
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Q1 PHI 4th & 6 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(9:32) 10-B.Mann punts 49 yards to WAS 15, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 83-J.Lane to WAS 15 for no gain (21-S.Brown).
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Q1 WAS 4th & 14 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(6:15) 10-T.Way punts 50 yards to PHI 26, Center-69-T.Ott. 18-B.Covey to PHI 37 for 11 yards (57-N.Bellore).
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Q2 WAS 4th & 11 at the 57Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(15:00) 10-T.Way punts 47 yards to PHI 10, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.
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Q2 PHI 4th & 11 at the 25Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 87%
(9:10) 4-J.Elliott 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-10-B.Mann.
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Q2 WAS 4th & 1 at the 2Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 62% p(FG) 99%
(5:14) 71-A.Wylie reported in as eligible. 36-C.Rodriguez left guard to PHI 1 for 1 yard (53-Z.Baun).
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Q3 WAS 4th & 10 at the 44Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 46%
(14:09) 10-T.Way punts 27 yards to PHI 17, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.
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Q4 WAS 4th & 4 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(9:17) 10-T.Way punts 40 yards to PHI 20, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.
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Q4 PHI 4th & 8 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(8:21) 10-B.Mann punts 38 yards to WAS 40, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.
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Q4 WAS 4th & 6 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(6:44) 10-T.Way punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.