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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 44

Washington Commanders 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(14:09) 10-T.Way punts 27 yards to PHI 17, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.83 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 44, worth -2.34 EP
KICK -0.76 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model