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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 56

Washington Commanders 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 21

What Actually Happened

(6:44) 10-T.Way punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.42 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 56, worth -2.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 17, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model