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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 64

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(9:32) 10-B.Mann punts 49 yards to WAS 15, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 83-J.Lane to WAS 15 for no gain (21-S.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.92 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 64, worth -3.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 22, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model