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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 65

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(8:04) 3-C.Waitman punts 50 yards to DET 15, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 11-K.Raymond to DET 15 for no gain (15-B.Skowronek).

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.63 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 65, worth -3.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.36 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 23, worth -1.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP