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Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
Sunday 2025-12-21 · 16:25 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.5 O/U 52.5

Win Probability

PIT
33.2%
DET
66.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET offense: +0.099 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • Jared Goff (DET): +0.163 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DET defense: +0.062 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • PIT offense: -0.039 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

PIT 22
–
DET 26
Projected margin: DET by 4 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

PIT

Isaac Seumalo G Out Triceps
T.J. Watt LB Out Lung
James Pierre CB Out Calf
Nick Herbig LB Doubtful Hamstring
Christian Kuntz LS Questionable Knee

DET

Kerby Joseph S Out Knee
Giovanni Manu T Out Knee
Taylor Decker T Questionable Shoulder
Graham Glasgow C Questionable Knee
Trystan Colon G Questionable Wrist
Amik Robertson CB Questionable Hand
Christian Mahogany G Questionable Fibula

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 29
–
DET 24

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:26 FG PIT (9:26) 9-C.Boswell 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman. PIT 3 – DET 0
  • Q2 10:13 FG DET (10:13) 39-J.Bates 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. PIT 3 – DET 3
  • Q2 02:00 TD DET (2:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 18-I.TeSlaa for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 3 – DET 9
  • Q2 00:11 TD PIT (:11) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 14-K.Gainwell for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN [98-D.Reader]. Penalty on DET-34-A.Anzalone, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. PIT 9 – DET 10
  • Q3 09:47 SAF PIT (9:47) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked in End Zone for -5 yards, SAFETY (29-K.Dugger). PIT 12 – DET 10
  • Q4 15:00 FG PIT (15:00) 9-C.Boswell 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman. PIT 15 – DET 10
  • Q4 12:32 TD PIT (12:32) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 30-J.Warren left end for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 21 – DET 10
  • Q4 08:45 TD DET (8:45) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 11-K.Raymond for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 22 – DET 16
  • Q4 06:50 TD PIT (6:50) 30-J.Warren left tackle for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 28 – DET 17
  • Q4 04:15 TD DET (4:15) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 0-J.Gibbs for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 29 – DET 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 11 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:17) 3-J.Fox punts 53 yards to PIT 20, Center-49-H.Hatten. 19-C.Austin pushed ob at PIT 29 for 9 yards (84-S.Zylstra).

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 14 at the 41
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 60%

    (9:26) 9-C.Boswell 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 99%

    (2:15) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 14-A.St. Brown (24-J.Porter) [97-Ca.Heyward].

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 10 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (13:41) 3-C.Waitman punts 46 yards to DET 20, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 11-K.Raymond to DET 23 for 3 yards (44-C.Bruener; 40-J.Peppers). PENALTY on PIT-15-B.Skowronek, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at DET 23.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 11 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 94%

    (10:13) 39-J.Bates 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 3 at the 65
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (8:04) 3-C.Waitman punts 50 yards to DET 15, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 11-K.Raymond to DET 15 for no gain (15-B.Skowronek).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 10 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (6:26) 3-J.Fox punts 54 yards to PIT 31, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 19-C.Austin. PENALTY on PIT-22-A.Samuel, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 31.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 10 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (4:13) 3-C.Waitman punts 54 yards to DET 25, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 11-K.Raymond to DET 38 for 13 yards (46-C.Kuntz).

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 2 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 57%

    (6:47) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 13-S.Miller to DET 35 for 7 yards (29-A.Maddox).

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 1 at the 11
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 97%

    (2:46) Direct snap to 83-Co.Heyward. 14-K.Gainwell left end to DET 2 for 9 yards (46-J.Campbell).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (15:00) 9-C.Boswell 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 15 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (14:33) 3-J.Fox punts 52 yards to PIT 39, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 13-S.Miller.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 2 at the 27
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 86%

    (8:45) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 11-K.Raymond for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 8 at the 18 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 94%

    (2:09) 9-C.Boswell 37 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.