4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 79

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(4:13) 3-C.Waitman punts 54 yards to DET 25, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 11-K.Raymond to DET 38 for 13 yards (46-C.Kuntz).

The Three Options

GO -2.44 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.03 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 79, worth -4.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 36, worth -1.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model