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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 42

Pittsburgh Steelers 12 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(6:47) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 13-S.Miller to DET 35 for 7 yards (29-A.Maddox).

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.29 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 42, worth -2.01 EP
KICK -0.14 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.64 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 12, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model