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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 11

Pittsburgh Steelers 12 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(2:46) Direct snap to 83-Co.Heyward. 14-K.Gainwell left end to DET 2 for 9 yards (46-J.Campbell).

The Three Options

GO +3.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.29 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 22, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model