Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 15 at the 91

Detroit Lions 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 15

(14:33) 3-J.Fox punts 52 yards to PIT 39, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 13-S.Miller.

The Three Options

GO -3.13 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.92 EP
66% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 91, worth -5.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model