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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 14 at the 41

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(9:26) 9-C.Boswell 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.09 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 41, worth -2.49 EP
KICK -0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.09 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 12, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model