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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 27

Detroit Lions 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 22

What Actually Happened

(8:45) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 11-K.Raymond for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.29 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.23 EP
KICK +1.17 EP
  • 86% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.75 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model