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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 18

Pittsburgh Steelers 29 – Detroit Lions 24

What Actually Happened

(2:09) 9-C.Boswell 37 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.14 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 18, worth -0.29 EP
KICK +2.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 28, worth -0.57 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model