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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 3

Detroit Lions 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(2:15) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 14-A.St. Brown (24-J.Porter) [97-Ca.Heyward].

The Three Options

GO +3.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.20 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 3, worth +0.76 EP
KICK +2.21 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.15 EP
PUNT +0.56 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model