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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 7

San Francisco 49ers 21 – Indianapolis Colts 14

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 18-E.Pineiro 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +2.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.40 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 7, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.47 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP